Jim Schutze has many statistical mistakes in this article according to the data that was shared with the Dallas City Council when the redistricting process started with them. See slides #69-71 in the presentation given to Dallas City Council on 9/7/2011 titled "Redistricting 2011: Process Review and Proposed Districting Plan." It is online at http://www.dallascityhall.com/...
Jim says the Hispanic population percentage was 35.6% in 2000 and grew to 43.1%The first number is correct. The second one should be 42.35%.
Jim says the white population percentage was 53% in 2000 and went down to 43.1%. These numbers are terribly wrong! The white population was only 34.56% in 2000 and by 2010 had fallen to only 28.82%!
Jim says the black population fell from 26.5% in 2000 to 22.3% in 2010.Both numbers are wrong again! The black population went from 25.65% in 2000 to 25.02% in 2010. That is hardly a significant change!! and certainly not a four percentage point drop! Again look at the above link to the slide show given city council members on 9/7/2011.
Jim was correct in indicating that "making black voters disappear" is the issue. But who did it? It appears it was people who wanted to maintain their council positions at all costs, even if it meant that the potential for another member of the racial/ethnic group they represented would be endangered, especially in the future. The cost paid was lower black percentages in the so-called "black districts."
In the approved map sent by the Redistricting Commission to the City Council the average black percentage in the three black districts was only 59.52%, over three percentage points below wPlan03 for average strength. By the time the final approved map was made this average percentage had fallen more, to below 57%! These low numbers, and the population movement patterns of the past decade, placed two of these three districts in danger of no longer being majority black by 2016, or sooner! In the trade off, one minority opportunity district was gained wherein a 45.19% black district existed making it "winnable" in the 2010 census. Given population changes in that area it is questionable if that "winnable" status remains today, and certainly questionable as to how long it will remain.
The majority of the 16,700 in black population that "disppeared" from the 4 districts now led by black councl members on the south side of Dallas is part of the 9,100 increase in black population in the 6 districts now led by white council members. Many from those 9,100 have moved into the black community east of Coit and Hwy 75 that is fragmented between districts 13, 11, & 10. The failure of the entire redistricting commission, and the city council, to recollect this "dissapeared" population into a black "winnable" district in North Dallas is the problem.