Okay, so the Cowboys were better than I expected in last week's NFL opener.
But don't be fooled, the San Francisco 49ers weren't as good as it seems.
Seems strange to be sniffing around an Under point-total play in a game between teams that scored a combined 57 in Week 1, but hear me out. When the 49ers and Cowboys meet Sunday afternoon on the slow sod of Candlestick Park, it'll be more defensive than most expect.
Look at the 49ers against the Seahawks last week. It's not often that teams win a game, much less amass 33 points with these paltry stats:
124 passing yards. 2.7 yards per rush. 1-12 on third downs. 9 penalties for 102 yards. Four trips inside the 15 that result in four field goals.
Yep, while the Cowboys were busy giving a game away in New York, the 49ers were handed a gift against Seattle.
To get their 33 points, the Niners needed three plus-territory Seattle turnovers (which resulted in David Akers field goals) and two late kick-return touchdowns by Ted Ginn. Thirty three looks impressive, but once upon a time a wise guy grumbled something about smoke and mirrors. Listen to him.
San Francisco has weapons in Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree (one catch for four yards last week), but more often than not it'll struggle to get to 21 points this season. As for the Cowboys, I expect a more careful, conservative Tony Romo this week. Fewer big plays? Maybe. Fewer goal-line gaffes? Definitely.
If the Cowboys can keep Ginn out of the end zone I think they'll win this game. I'm even more sure that these offenses -- without assists -- will struggle to produce five touchdowns and two field goals.
I started with a mythical bankroll of $10,000, courtesy of bodog. First of all, because their site is easy to navigate. Second, because they're based in Costa Rica and have had minimal success tracking me down in the past.
I'll analyze games/wagers of local interest each weekend and make a wager every Thursday. With any luck, by Christmas it'll be iPads and iCandy for everyone.
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
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CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,400
SEASON RECORD: 1-1
LAST WEEK: 0-1 (-$1,100)
THIS WEEK: Cowboys-49ers Under 43 for $750