When you wake up on Tuesday, January 20—the day of President-elect Obama's inauguration—should you consult your copy of the Times or Billboard to set expectations for the next four years? It all depends on whether you believe in the monoculture.
The mono-what? Let us explain.
Though the word "monoculture" began life as a wonky agricultural term, it has recently crept into music journalism, thanks to the self-declared "Dean of American Rock Critics," Robert Christgau. So when we speak of the monoculture—and we're talking Beyoncé, not barley—we mean chart dominance and media ubiquity. Music's monoculture is at its strongest and most compelling when the reigning artist manages to both define and transcend the moment, as The Beatles did in 1964 when 73 million viewers tuned in to watch them play "I Want to Hold Your Hand" on The Ed Sullivan Show. It was an occasion we still think of as symbolizing the beginning of the real '60s. In such instances, a song's success can outline meaning in an otherwise gauzy present.
With a new commander-in-chief moving into the White House, it seems an ideal time to test the monoculture's strength. We took the last five major (that is, cross-party) presidential transitions, found the No. 1 Billboard hit the week of the correlating swearing-in and sussed out clues foretelling the nation's fortunes during that administration.
1969: Republican Richard M. Nixon becomes the 37th president
No. 1 Song: "I Heard It Through the Grapevine" by Marvin Gaye
What the hit got right: Like the song's protagonist, the Nixon administration is marked by agonizing paranoia. This eventually leads to its downfall in the Watergate scandal and Nixon's portrayal as a grifter with a prosthetic nose in countless movies and memoirs.
1977: Democrat Jimmy Carter becomes the 39th president
No. 1 Song: "You Make Me Feel Like Dancing" by Leo Sayer
What the hit got right: Though Sayer's strength always rested more within the realm of man-perms than foreign policy, his lyrics "Just snap your fingers and I'm walking/Like a dog hanging on your lead" presciently sum up the U.S.' bargaining position during the Iran hostage crisis.
1981: Republican Ronald Reagan becomes the 40th president
No. 1 Song: "(Just Like) Starting Over" by John Lennon
What the hit got right: After two decades of growing political disenchantment, this song's title and throwback '50s-era Sun Studio arrangement indicates a return to core American values. Even the president wore a Little Richard-style pompadour.
1993: Democrat Bill Clinton becomes the 42nd president
No. 1 Song: "I Will Always Love You" by Whitney Houston
What the hit got right: Like this arid ballad—and due to the bogus investigative war Republicans waged on the first family—the Clinton years would last forever. Or at least until someone in the family finally lost an election.
2001: Republican George W. Bush becomes the 43rd president
No. 1 Song: "Independent Women Part 1" by Destiny's Child
What the hit got right: Throughout its run, the Bush administration was eager to declare its independence from the way Washington—with its fancy exit strategies and practical tax plans—usually did business. And from this great recession to these wars we're in, the president's efforts were not in vain. For an amazing eight-year run, Bush managed to emancipate us from good sense and reason.
2009: Democrat Barack Obama becomes the 44th president
No. 1 song (at press time): "Single Ladies (Put a Ring on it)" by Beyoncé
What this song means for the future: After nearly a decade of being mired in the muck of adolescent co-dependency, Americans are moving on to a consensual relationship with a real adult. We're glowing already.
