But few years have seemed so promising for Texas Democrats as this one. Polling shows Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred within spitting distance of incumbent Ted Cruz, and both presidential candidates spent valuable time during the early voting period campaigning in Texas, suggesting that Texas could be in play.
One county, referred to as the final Republican stronghold among the state's major counties, could signal whether the times are changing for Texas politics. Tarrant County, which includes Fort Worth, Arlington, Grapevine, Southlake and a dozen other smaller cities, is home to over 2.1 million Texans and, according to the 2022 census count, 1.3 million registered voters.
Ten years ago, that number was just north of 970,000.
The region has experienced explosive population growth over the last 30 years, nearly doubling since 1990. And while Republicans have historically won handedly in Tarrant County — Mitt Romney received 57% of the county's votes in 2012, compared with Barack Obama's 41% — the 2020 election resulted in a virtual tie that tipped, by tenths of a percentage point, in favor of President Joe Biden.
“That [population growth] is going to bring in different partisan or ideological views that have a chance to flip a once solidly Republican district into a swing district or maybe even a Democratic district,” Brent Boyea, a professor of political science at the University of Texas at Arlington, told the Observer. “It's the last of the big Texas counties population-wise that has not flipped fully to Democrats, and I would say it's a very, very competitive county.”
“If you see Vice President Harris win by 5%, yeah, that's a changing trend [for the county]. And it could happen." — Brent Boyea, political science professor at UT Arlington
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Tarrant County’s 2020 election results were too close to confidently say that the county has gone, or will go again, in favor of the Democrats. But on the flipside, Boyea said, Trump is such a divisive character that it’s difficult to “read the tea leaves” of how voters will respond on Election Day.
So Boyea, like the rest of Texas, will be watching Tarrant County on Nov. 5.
“If you see Vice President Harris win by 5%, yeah, that's a changing trend [for the county],” Boyea said. “And it could happen. If you look at the population growth, even in the last three years, from 2020 to 2023, we saw a growth of almost 70,000 people in Tarrant County.”
Fighting the Uphill Battle
Denise Wilkerson, who moved into her Arlington home in 1997, has watched the neighborhood change dramatically since then. She has seen new restaurants serving cuisine from around the world, signaling her city's changing demographics. She watched her neighbors advocate for better public schools and struggle to pay rising premiums for health insurance. And she watched elected officials "fail" to adequately represent Arlington while governing in Austin.That is why Wilkerson, who does not consider herself to be a politician, decided to run for House District 94. She faces Republican incumbent Tony Tinderholt, who has held the seat for nearly 10 years and who was referred to as one of Texas’ “most far right candidates” by the Texas Observer in 2014, when he first ran for the seat.
At the time, the Texas Observer described House District 94 as one where “The guy with the ‘R’ next to his name wins.” But Wilkerson believes that although the odds are against her, a “certain energy” emerged in the weeks after Harris was announced as the Democratic candidate for president that could result in a down-ballot effect boosting her chances.
“I knew this would be an uphill battle from the very beginning," Wilkerson told the Dallas Observer. "The reason I'm running is because someone needed to stand in the gap for all of the people that Tony Tinderholt has left behind. I wasn't in a position to figure out, well, what are my chances of winning or not winning? I knew it would be a tough battle.”
The Texas House and Texas Senate underwent redistricting in 2021, and the effect on House District 94, Wilkerson believes, helped shore up the district in Republicans' favor. The district once encompassed Arlington almost exclusively, it now weaves up through Hurst and Colleyville, with particular inlets cut out “with precision.”
“It shows me that the Republicans are afraid of losing this district,” Wilkerson said. “To make such a significant change in a district's shape, to me, it looks like a sign of desperation.”
Wilkerson told the Observer she was "insulted" that it initially seemed like her Republican opponent wasn't campaigning against her, but a mailer sent out during early voting accuses her of being a "radical leftist."
Denise Wilkerson
Boyea agreed that the “nature of redistricting” results in the state being “carved up” in favor of the controlling political party, but Wilkerson’s race could be difficult for reasons besides district lines.
State and national congressional races in Tarrant County largely seem to be decided by the status quo, Boyea said. Despite talk of change in the region, the “incumbent effect” has worked in favor of Republican officials running to hold onto their offices.
“I think Beth Van Duyne is a great example of [the incumbent effect],” Boyea said, referring to the Republican congresswoman whose district encompasses parts of Tarrant County. “In Tarrant County alone she increased 5% in the last election [compared with her first campaign], and I think she’s going to be OK again this election.”
Tinderholt, who tallied 50.97% of the vote in 2020, increased his lead to 56.6% in 2022. Boyea said he expects the status quo to play a similar role in Tarrant County’s solidly Democratic districts, which are currently held by U.S. Reps. Jasmine Crockett and Marc Veasey.
The Races to Watch
In an interview with The Hill, Veasey pointed to Tarrant County as the place that will signal a “game over for Republicans,” once Democrats begin winning. The report points to an unexpected seat as the one that could signal that changing tide.Tarrant County Sheriff Bill Waybourn is a Republican whose incumbency is vulnerable in part because of the influx of bad press the county jail has received over a series of mysterious deaths there during his tenure. If Waybourn loses the sheriff's seat to Democratic challenger Patrick Moses, Democrats hope Tarrant County will follow the lead of neighboring Dallas County, the Hill reports.
“To make such a significant change in a district's shape, to me, it looks like a sign of desperation.” — Denise Wilkerson, Democrat running for H.D. 94
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In 2004, the Dallas County Sheriff's race was won by Lupe Valdez, signaling Dallas’ shift toward the Democrats. Twenty years later, the county remains solidly blue.
Boyea also points to Texas’ 12th Congressional District, which has been held by Republican Kay Granger since 1996, as one to watch following Granger’s decision to retire. Republican Craig Goldman and Democrat Trey Hunt are campaigning for the seat, which takes in western Fort Worth and stretches into Parker County.
“I suspect districting-wise, [District 12 is] probably a Republican district, but I think it's interesting [to watch],” Boyea said. “I don't see a lot of flipping [in Tarrant County], but it's possible in the District 12 race as well as District 26, where you have two new representatives that will be elected.”
