Ken Paxton Strongly Hints at Senate Run, Polls Show He’ll Win

Texas Attorney Gen. Ken Paxton was in Dallas yesterday. He spent the afternoon with The New York Times at an ambiguous “Dallas social club.”

Amid mounting rumors that Paxton plans to challenge Republican Sen. John Cornyn in 2026, Paxton all but admitted to the bid. According to the Times, Paxton began answering a question about why he’s decided to run for a seat in the Senate before he was reminded by an aide that he has not officially announced a campaign.

“Right,” Texas’ leading legal mind replied.

The Times referenced polling that shows if Paxton wants the seat, it’s his for the taking. Two months ago, a poll by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates found that Paxton would lead Cornyn by 25 points in a Republican primary. That same poll also shows Paxton winning against a Democrat. (Sorry, Colin Allred.)

A nonpartisan poll from the University of Houston concurs with the finding that Texas Republicans are more inclined to support Paxton than Cornyn at this time, the Times reports. Paxton has long been critical of Cornyn, who was elected to the Senate in 2002, rebuking the senator’s co-signing of gun control legislation following the mass school shooting in Uvalde in 2022. Republicans have also criticized Cornyn for not being pro-President Donald Trump enough.

“I just think there’s a lot of things that you could do at the federal level,” Paxton told the Times. “Trump can use the help and have a senator that actually is supportive and not critical.”

Paxton declined to denounce Trump’s recent claims that there are “methods” that would allow him to serve a third term as president. As a senator, Paxton said he’d “deal with” Trump attempting to retain the presidential office if it comes up.

“My understanding is that there’s constitutionally two terms, but I am no expert on that,” Paxton said. “It may or may not come up. But he’s got to decide he’s going to do a third term. And then we would deal with the issue.”

It’s safe to assume that Paxton would have the president’s support in a bid for the Senate. Paxton was a rumored finalist for Trump’s U.S. attorney general seat, and Paxton has used Texas’ attorney general powers to support the president’s initiatives. Paxton told the Times he has spoken with members of the Trump camp about his interest in running for Senate and has heard “nothing negative, that’s for sure.”

The story ends with Paxton saying his official decision to run for Senate will be based on finances. He thinks he needs “about $20 million” to usurp Texas’ more moderate incumbent successfully.