Chris Wolfgang
Audio By Carbonatix
The number of cattle in the U.S. has reached a record low since 1951: 86.2 million. That data, according to the USDA, is the result of drought, the cost of feeding the animals and other economic pressures. Collectively, these factors have caused beef prices to skyrocket in recent years.
Pitmasters across Texas are feeling the same pressures on their end of the supply-and-demand chain.
Russell Roegels of Houston-based Roegels Barbecue Co. was on Good Morning America last week to discuss the sky-high cost of brisket, among other things.
Why the math doesn’t work
“My total food cost, say if I’m gonna spend $100,000 a month on groceries to bring in here, $45,000 of that alone is brisket,” Russell Roegels told GMA, “It’s a fear for me on a daily basis. We want ‘em to eat pork. We want ‘em to eat chicken. We want ‘em to eat turkey, but brisket is Texas barbecue. That’s what just defines Texas barbecue.”
The cost to purchase the brisket is only the tip of the iceberg, as you also have to factor in labor costs and the time the meat must be cooked for, which is often upwards of 12 hours.
“Four years ago, it cost about $0.29 for the brisket on a sandwich. That is almost $6 today, and that’s before you add potentially 12 hours of labor, because brisket’s very labor-intensive,” Emily Williams Knight, the President and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, explained in her interview with GMA, “So what you’re seeing is this sort of incredible increase, almost 40-50%, is driving these barbecue restaurants out of business.”
What will decide the future of beef prices is how quickly the cattle herds can be replenished from the record low they’re facing. “Unfortunately, you can’t just replace cattle in months like other protein sources. It takes years,” explained Knight.
As of now, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that beef prices may not improve until 2028. In just the last six years, beef prices have soared by over 235%.
Dallas’ own Smokey Joe’s BBQ is facing the same struggles with beef prices despite its acclaim as one of Texas Monthly’s Top 50 barbecue joints and one of the Observer’s Top 50 Restaurants.
Last week, when Texas state representative and Democratic Senate hopeful James Talarico visited Kris Manning’s famed joint. Manning talked about how rising beef prices have been hard on his business. He’s been forced to opt for choice over grass-fed beef to keep prices down.
“How much of the price can the customer take on before they say, ‘You know what, we’re not going to get brisket.’ I mean, it just doesn’t make sense financially, and essentially, people that don’t eat pork stop coming to barbecue places,” Manning told the Observer.
It feels sacrilege to go to a barbecue joint and order chicken, but if the funds are tight and you still want to support local barbecue joints, perhaps we could all take a page from the Chick-fil-A slogan.
