Lone Stars and Golden Statues: Who Will (and Should) Win at the 2026 Oscars

The silver screen casts a long, glittering shadow across the cultural landscape, and once a year, that shadow solidifies into gold. The 98th Academy Awards arrive on Sunday, March 15, bringing with them the usual mix of triumphs, snubs and heart-stopping cinema magic. You can catch the ceremony live on ABC or stream it on Hulu starting at 6 p.m.

This year’s race is a fascinating collision of sweeping epics and intimate cultural touchstones. We have vampires, visionaries and a surprisingly robust lineup of Texas talent quietly shaping the ballot. Before the envelopes open, let us break down the main categories — who will take the stage, who might steal the spotlight and who actually deserves the gold.

Will win: One Battle After Another
Could win: Sinners or Hamnet
Should win: Sinners. It is ultimately a heavyweight Warner Bros. showdown between Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler. One Battle After Another has dominated the top spot for months, vacuuming up prizes at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTA and locally with the Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association. But honestly, no film this year feels richer with meaning than Sinners. It draws on its vampiric lore to capture the profound truth of the Black American experience and the massive influence Black culture exerts on musical genres. It offers the most heartfelt narrative of the two frontrunners. We will be talking about Sinners long after the dust settles on One Battle. Do not completely rule out Hamnet, though; it has pulled off a few surprising victories on the road to Hollywood.

Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Could win: Ryan Coogler
Should win: Ryan Coogler. He deserves this for all the reasons Sinners deserves Best Picture. Lately, the Academy loves splitting the vote when two heavy hitters dominate the season. Handing Anderson the directing trophy while Coogler takes Best Picture feels like a very real possibility. Anderson has claimed the directing prize at nearly every preceding awards show, making it a statistical shock if he loses here.

Will win: Jessie Buckley
Could win: Rose Byrne
Should win: Buckley. She is a true force of emotional nature in Hamnet. Her performance feels so raw and lived-in that you forget you are watching an actor at work. Still, nobody would complain if Byrne snuck away with the gold for her incredible turn, even if Buckley seems like a lock.

Will win: Michael B. Jordan
Could win: Timothée Chalamet
Should win: Michael B. Jordan or Ethan Hawke. Welcome to the most chaotic category of the night. For a while, Chalamet held the momentum, but his polarizing public comments derailed his campaign. Ironically, his controversial opinions inadvertently boosted opera and ballet ticket sales, helping the very communities he agitated. Add in the recent, heavy controversies surrounding the Safdie brothers, and his chances took a massive hit. Winners at the precursor shows have been completely unpredictable. Rely on the Screen Actors Guild Awards as a strong indicator, making Michael B. Jordan a smart bet.

Will win: Amy Madigan
Could win: Wunmi Mosaku or Teyana Taylor
Should win: Amy Madigan. This category lacks a definitive frontrunner. Most precursor awards have honored Madigan for her deeply unsettling portrayal of Gladys in Weapons. It is a memorable, creepy performance from an absolute industry legend. This feels like the perfect opportunity to reward a great role while doubling as a lifetime achievement nod. Still, a victory for Mosaku’s brilliant work in Sinners would be incredibly satisfying.

Will win: Sean Penn
Could win: Delroy Lindo
Should win: Delroy Lindo. Penn’s performance is objectively an all-timer, blending sharp intensity with unexpected humor. He already has two Oscars and famously refuses to play the campaigning game, but talent often trumps politics. However, Lindo winning would be the poetic justice we need — he should have won for Da 5 Bloods years ago. The man turns monologues into sheer poetry, and his delivery in Sinners is magnificent.

The Texas Connection: Local Ties on Oscar Night

Even if the ceremony happens in Los Angeles, the heart of this year’s Oscars beats a little bit in Texas. Here is how the Lone Star State shows up on the ballot:

Train Dreams
Dallas filmmaker Clint Bentley sees his film up for four Academy Awards, including Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay. Brazilian director of photography Adolpho Veloso holds the film’s strongest chance to win a trophy for his stunning cinematography. It is a win for Dallas by direct creative association.

KPop Demon Hunters
Believe it or not, KPop Demon Hunters star Arden Cho grew up in Plano. Her vibrant film is practically guaranteed to take home Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song. “Golden,” indeed.

Elio
The chances might be slim, but if Pixar’s Elio pulls off a surprise victory, it becomes a massive win for Jasmine Derry. The talented simulation technical director who helped bring the film to life grew up right here in Mesquite.

Blue Moon
Texas cinema royalty Richard Linklater directed this sharp, whip-fast film, starring fellow Texan Ethan Hawke. The film earned nods for Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay. The odds are tough, but Hawke pulling an upset remains a thrilling possibility.

Bugonia
Jesse Plemons, born in Dallas and raised near Waco, anchored this film with incredible skill. Though the Academy snubbed his performance, his collaborators secured four nominations.

One Battle After Another
Paul Thomas Anderson clearly loves the Texas landscape. After shooting There Will Be Blood in Marfa, he brought this 13-time nominated epic to El Paso. With the film expected to take home at least five trophies, Texas gets to claim a massive piece of this cinematic triumph.