Lauren Drewes Daniels
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Turnout remains strong among Democratic voters in Dallas County as early voting comes to a close.
Just under 168,000 Republican and Democratic primary votes have been cast in Dallas County through Wednesday, according to preliminary data from the Dallas County Elections Department. With two days unaccounted for, that total represents a significant jump — over 50% — from the 2024 primary, when 104,978 votes were cast over the entire early-voting period. Friday is the last day of early voting.
The increase mirrors a statewide trend. More votes have been cast in Texas than in any recent presidential or midterm election through the first seven days of early voting, The Texas Tribune reported Wednesday.
As in the rest of the state, Democratic turnout has fueled the rise in early voting totals in Dallas County. Over 125,000 votes have been cast in the Democratic primary, up from just under 60,000 through the entire early voting period in 2024.
Republican turnout is also up from 2024, albeit to a lesser degree. Over 42,000 Republican votes have been cast in Dallas County through nine days of early voting. That’s compared to over 36,000 total early votes cast in the 2024 Republican primary election, according to Dallas County Elections data.
Voters have also turned out at comparatively higher rates in Collin and Denton Counties, where Republicans lead in early-voting totals, KERA has reported. Through Wednesday, over 85,000 votes have been cast in the Democratic primary in Tarrant County, up from over 35,000 early votes cast in total for the 2024 race.
According to Tarrant County Elections data, while Republicans are also outpacing 2024 early-voting numbers, more than 20,000 more votes have been cast in the Democratic primary race, an inversion of 2024, when Republican primary early votes outnumbered Democratic totals by more than double.
Tarrant County’s early voting data reflects an ongoing shift in the historic GOP stronghold and increased enthusiasm among Fort Worth Democrats, which recently propelled Taylor Rehmet to a shock victory in a Texas House district that had not elected a Democratic representative since 1981.
The surge in turnout can likely be attributed to hotly contested races for both parties’ U.S. Senate nominations. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is facing a challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a race that has set a new Senate primary fundraising record, The Hill earlier reported. On the Democratic ballot, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are battling to show voters why they could upset a Republican nominee to serve as Texas’ first Democratic senator since 1988.
What the Polls Say
A poll released by the University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project Monday shows Crockett leading Talarico by 12 percentage points, with an estimated margin of +/-5.1 points. Of the 349 Democratic primary voters polled, 56% said they supported Crockett. A January University of Houston poll also found that, among 550 likely voters, Crockett had an eight-point lead on Talarico, with a margin of error of +/- 4.18%.
The UT poll was conducted from Feb. 2 to Feb. 16, two days before a Late Show with Stephen Colbert interview with Talarico went viral after reports that CBS had refused to air the segment. Talarico’s interview now has close to 9 million views on YouTube alone. His campaign has since released internal polling data collected prior to the Colbert video’s release showing a four-point lead over Crockett, who told MS Now in an interview that the controversy likely gave her opponent a “boost.”
In an interview with the local Fox station in Austin, Texas Politics Project Director James Henson said the numbers will likely shift before election day.
“We came out of the field in this poll around February 16, a lot of money and by a lot, I mean… millions of dollars were going to be spent in these races after we collected this data, so I would not be surprised and nobody should be surprised if there is movement in these numbers,” said Henson.
Ken Paxton led Cornyn in the UT poll by two points — well within the margin of error — with U.S. Rep Wesley Hunt trailing Cornyn by 12 points. President Donald Trump has yet to endorse a candidate, having earlier told media he “supports all three.”
