New Dallas Winter Forecast Released: What to Expect

If you were to poll your local coffee shop manager in Dallas, it would be a safe bet that iced pumpkin spice drinks are outselling the hot ones usually favored by autumn enthusiasts. Even though we’re creeping ever so close to November, and this week’s high temps will mercifully hover around 80 degrees, the hot, sunny days of summer still feel too close for comfort right now. 

Thanks to the National Weather Service’s latest seasonal outlooks for January, February, and March 2026, we have an idea of what to expect from Dallas weather once the New Year rolls around. Now, this may surprise you, we warn sarcastically, but it looks like we’ll get more of what we’re used to during that time of year.

According to the NWS Seasonal Temperature Outlook, North Texas is unlikely to be any colder or warmer than it usually is. Dallas sits barely inside the northernmost spot of the “above normal” section on the map, with the rest of the state below us expecting the same. Only a small section of Texas, in the Texoma area, has “equal chances,” which basically means folks there can expect more or less the temperatures they experienced the last time January, February and March rolled around.  

To be clear, it’s not as though we should be fearing a blistering winter. The average high in Dallas in January is about 58 degrees, and the NWS outlook merely lists our region as “leaning above” in the range of “above normal” areas. So, for us, it’s not likely to go much higher, where much of West Texas, New Mexico and Arizona are seeing a higher degree of probability for warmer than usual temperatures. 

Besides, 58 or 60 degrees sounds kind of nice when you compare it to the Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast for November and December. We mentioned last month how the Almanac warned North Texans to “keep pipes insulated and prep for a potential early northern snow in November.” 

February Heat or Snow?

Although it’s been eight months, some might remember that February was warmer than usual, with a pair of hot spells making for an unseasonably warm month. Perhaps those temps were generated by the anger of Mavericks fans following the Feb. 1 Luka Doncic trade? Sorry, we couldn’t help ourselves. Regardless, the NWS outlook suggests we could be in for another slightly warmer February than what we might have been used to before this year. 

According to the NWS precipitation outlook, North Texas also has an equal chance of seeing about the same amount of the wet stuff, or perhaps a little less than normal, once January hits. This isn’t all that different from what the service forecasted for the early part of 2025, when Dallas received just under 6 inches of rain during January 2025.