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As Texans head to the polls, bettors are speculating on outcomes with prediction markets.
Both the Democratic and Republican Senate Primary races are hotly contested, with recent polling showing Attorney General Ken Paxton’s lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn well within the margin of error. On two of the leading prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, Paxton is favored by a wide margin. In the Democratic race, state Rep. James Talarico has emerged as a betting favorite.
Prediction markets are online trading platforms that allow users to wager on the outcomes of future events, such as the Super Bowl or the Grammy Awards. The platforms aggregate users’ bets on whether an event will occur to set market prices (set at X cents per $1 share) that essentially function as odds showing what the majority of the market views as the likely outcome.
Payouts are made based on those prices. For example, if a user locked in the price for a $1 bet on a Talarico win at 85%, the payout would be roughly 15 cents.
Talarico’s odds of winning on Polymarket now stand north of 85% and have surged as high as 91 cents-on-the-dollar on Election Day. Those odds have risen significantly since Feb. 28, when Talarico’s chances of winning were put at roughly 64% following the release of polling showing the candidate trailing behind U.S. Rep Jasmine Crockett by 12 points. As of 2 p.m on Tuesday, Kalshi users are also placing Talarico’s odds at roughly 90%.
Election Day turnout in Dallas County — a stronghold for Crockett — has slowed despite record early-voting numbers. County Judge Clay Jenkins reported on X that just over 27,000 votes have been cast through 11 a.m. Tuesday. Reports have circulated of hundreds of voters being turned away at their polling places following the implementation of a new precinct-centered voting system.
Trading volume for the Democratic Primary race has reached over $3 million on Polymarket and is nearing $7 million on Kalshi, reflecting nationwide interest in the primary. One Polymarket user has wagered over $104,000 on a Talarico win.
In the Republican race, Paxton’s odds of winning are hovering at around 80% on Polymarket and Kalshi. On both platforms, Cornyn’s predicted chances of winning are hovering around 20%, while Wesley Hunt’s odds sit at or less than 1%. With recent polling indicating Paxton is ahead by just two points, the race may go to a runoff. If that is the case, bets will still apply to the ultimate result.
While the Democratic primary drew more interest on Kalshi, speculators on the Republican race seem to be gravitating toward Polymarket. Over $5 million has been bet on the outcome of Cornyn’s reelection campaign on Polymarket, compared to $3 million in market volume on Kalshi.
Both prediction markets still have the Republicans as heavy favorites in the general election, although Kalshi users are predicting an increasingly close race, with Democratic chances of flipping the seat at a record 40% as of 2:00 p.m.
On Polymarket, bettors will be paid out based on an official announcement by either party, although “an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.” Kalshi users will be paid out after 30 minutes of an official election result.
The platforms have drawn scrutiny in recent months. In January, an anonymous trader made more than $400,000 on Polymarket by predicting the capture of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro. Over the weekend, another trader took home $550,000 after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
“It’s insane this is legal,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) wrote on X in response to the trade.
