A report from Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the power grid operator, revealed rolling blackouts are 50%–80% likely in a repeat of the catastrophic winter storms that ravaged the state in 2021.
The Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy Report uses a simulation to predict the risk of an energy emergency. The analysis uses the energy demand level that caused the near collapse of the power grid during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021. If climatic conditions this January mirror Uri, the chance of rolling blackouts is 80% at peak hours. The risk of blackouts is highest between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m., when solar power production is low but energy demands are high.
The Texas Tribune reported that ERCOT’S chief meteorologist, Chris Coleman, forecast predictions warned of weather patterns similar to 2021, with “greater-than-average” chances of extreme winter temperatures.
“That doesn’t mean we’re going to have Uri, but it does, again, state that we’re in a pattern that supports something like a Uri this winter,” Coleman said. “The conditions are there.”
An ERCOT representative was unavailable for an interview, but did provide a comment via email: “It is important to understand that the MORA is NOT an actual forecast but simulated models of various conditions including worst-case scenarios.”
Winter Storm Uri caused a statewide power outage that left millions of Texans without electricity for days. Gov. Greg Abbott declared a state of emergency in all 254 counties, and people were forced to survive without reliable access to heat, water, food and transportation. A total of 246 people died in what was one of the worst natural disasters to hit the state in years. The mass blackouts were the result of load shed, controlled blackouts that help mitigate power demands that exceed the supply. Storm Uri created up to $130 billion in losses.
Grid Updates
Both ERCOT and state government officials caught fire for their response to the 2021 power crisis. While teeth chattered in below-freezing apartments, Sen. Ted Cruz was famously caught waiting for a flight to Cancun, Mexico. Initially, government officials blamed the disastrous power outages on renewable energy sources, claiming wind turbine equipment freezes snowballed into the mass orchestrated blackouts that occurred. But later investigations revealed the state’s reliance on natural gas was the likelier source. Steps have been taken to enhance the power grid since then, adding 10,000 megawatts of generation, 5,000 of which are solar powered, and another 1,200 natural gas and wind power. In 2021, the energy demand reached 69,000 megawatts before shutdowns. In August, a power demand for 86,000 megawatts broke records. ERCOT estimates that a single megawatt provides enough power for 250 homes.“The generation resource mix that powers the Texas electric grid is more diverse than ever before,” wrote ERCOT on X.
Following Storm Uri, there was a public outcry to connect the Texas electric grid to surrounding national grids, which would allow the state to siphon energy from other states in the event of another shutdown. A bill, backed by Democrats, would have placed the Texas electric grid under the supervision of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, but it failed to pass the Senate.
“In Texas, we proudly maintain our own electric grid — overseen by Texans, not the federal government — and we intend to keep it that way,” said U.S. Rep. Randy Weber, a Republican from Friendswood, to Spectrum News 1.
Instead of interlocking systems, Republicans have focused on expanding energy production within the state. The recent passage of Proposition 7 created funding of roughly $10 billion, provided through low-interest loans, for more natural gas plants. The proposition aims "to support the construction, maintenance, modernization, and operation of electric generating facilities.”
As Republicans grapple with solutions to the routine roller coaster weather patterns and the potential energy emergencies that accompany them, support for expanding nuclear energy grows. The push is heavily supported by Abbott, who hopes to see Texas become a top producer of nuclear energy.
“There’s an urgent desire to find zero-carbon energy sources that aren’t intermittent like renewables,” said Colin Leyden, Texas state director of the Environmental Defense Fund in an interview with the Texas Tribune. “There aren’t a lot of options, and nuclear is one.”
