Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Did you feel that outside on Wednesday morning? You weren’t dreaming, North Texas. It was chilly. Legitimately chilly. Hoodie weather, if you will. It was glorious!
It got us wondering: Just how cold will it get this winter? Will it be colder this year than it was last year?
We’ve checked out The Old Farmers Almanac recently for some winter info, but this time we went looking for more specific, scientific intel that might give us a glimpse into what we can expect as fall rolls into winter, and 2024 gives way to 2025.
We found out that La Niña might have a substantial say as to how the United States feels this winter. Not to be confused with El Niño, La Niña is “a climate cycle that occurs when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean experiences unusually cold sea surface temperatures,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In short, La Niña, the cool counterpart to El Nino, can make things a good bit chillier in a whole lot of places.
NOAA suspects La Niña will most likely occur between September and November this year, and that it’s not likely to be all that strong of an event. That means La Niña’s chilling touch probably won’t be all that chilling after all in its effect on North Texas. CNN reported this week that “while it’s still unclear just how strong La Niña will get, current forecasts favor a weaker one.”
CNN also reported that “[l]ast winter was the warmest on record for the Lower 48 because it was dominated by La Niña’s counterpart El Niño in a world also warming due to fossil fuel pollution.”
As for this winter in Texas? Not much has changed since we last wondered about North Texas winter weather in September. It looks like we should all still expect a drier, warmer than normal winter. That’s not a bad thing in and of itself, necessarily. It’s those other possible climate-related impacts La Niña might have that are more worthy our concern.
“La Niña can contribute to a more active Atlantic hurricane season, which could increase the risk of hurricanes and tropical storms making landfall in Texas,” the Austin American-Statesman writes, while adding that NOAA also predicts that there might be “17-25 named storms, with 4-7 becoming major hurricanes.”
