Colin Allred, who failed to dethrone Sen. Ted Cruz in the 2024 election, has already joined the race. Beto O’Rourke, another failed Cruz opponent, who at least got somewhat close to turning Texas a little more purple in 2018, has teased another campaign, and state Rep. James Talarico is drawing crowds of thousands across the state as he builds a name for himself.
But does a Democrat even have a fighting chance in a state that hasn’t had a Democratic senator since the early ‘90s? According to experts, they just might.
In the midst of a “biblical divorce” and with a history of impeachment and alleged, less-than-legal affairs, Paxton is polling higher than Cornyn these days. Regardless, Paxton is still “damaged goods,” says Dr. Matthew Wilson, a political science professor with a special interest in electoral politics at Southern Methodist University.
“A well-funded Democratic candidate will have more than a fighting chance of taking this seat," said Wilson. “It is a very serious opportunity for Democrats to break through and break the Republican streak of statewide victories. I don't think that is the most likely outcome, but it is a very plausible outcome.”
Non-presidential-year elections don't always offer easy victories for candidates within the same political party that occupies the White House. There’s a simple explanation for this, says Wilson: The unrepresented party has a fervent determination to flip their states.
“[Democrats] need to take advantage of their turnout advantage, which they will have because of the white-hot Democratic outrage at Donald Trump,” he said. “We know that Democrats and liberals despise Donald Trump to a much greater degree than other out-party partisans even typically dislike a president of the other party.”
Wilson says not only will Democratic turnout likely be exceptionally high come November of next year, but Republican turnout is likely to be low, offering a small window of opportunity. Many of Paxton’s supporters, unswayed by his scandals, are the same voters who secured the second Trump presidency, but Wislon says they’re not reliable during any other election than the big one.
“Donald Trump won the presidency last time by activating, impressively so, large numbers of low-propensity voters,” he said. “But the trouble with low-propensity voters is that they're low-propensity voters. Getting a lot of those people who came out for Trump in '24 to show up to support Republicans in the midterms is going to be difficult.”
Wilson says Democrats face an uphill battle, but if they play their cards right, they could slowly close the chasm left by Paxton’s jaded reputation, should he be the GOP nominee.
What Democrats Will Have To Do Right
In 2018, Texas looked more purple than ever before as O’Rourke’s $80 million campaign was almost victorious. Trailing by just 2.6% points, it was the tightest statewide race in a long time. The trick, says Wilson, was O’Rourke’s seemingly inexhaustible source of energy.In his campaign, he visited all 254 counties of Texas, including the most staunchly Republican rural areas. Prospective Democratic candidates will have to adopt the same tactics, says Wilson, and they’ll have to exhibit the same gritty demeanor that O’Rourke became known for.
“To capture the nomination, you have to project a lot of feistiness and combativeness to show that you really want to take it to the Republicans, because that's the appetite in the Democratic primary electorate right now,” he said. “They are pissed off that Donald Trump is president. They are pissed off about what he has done as president. They are sick and tired of losing in Texas.”
But that’s just the ramp-up to secure the primary nomination, after that point, things get a little dicier, says Wilson. In order to win the Senate seat, he anticipates that a winning candidate will need to strike a balance between passion and composure.
“The question is, when you try to actually win the election in a state that still leans Republican, can you backtrack on some of that and then pivot and present yourself as the more, quote unquote, normal, responsible alternative to a damaged Ken Paxton?” he said.
After appearing on the Joe Rogan podcast, where the host encouraged Talarico to run for president in somewhat jest, the young Democrat has emerged as a frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for Senator. The website domain talaricoforsenate.com is already reserved, and a "launching soon" banner is on the front page.
But Wilson says Talarico may not have the edge initially needed to rise as a legitimate combatant against the Republican candidates. He points out that a “wild card” who may have more than the needed amount of edge is Dallas’ own Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who has continuously appeared in headlines for her unabashed disapproval of Republican lawmakers.
“Recent polling suggests that, actually, the most popular Democrat in the state for this nomination among the Democratic base would be Jasmine Crockett… She, like Paxton, is a polarizing figure, more so than any of those others,” he said. “As a political observer in Texas, there's a part of me that would dearly love to watch a Ken Paxton v. Jasmine Crockett race, because you could just bring out the popcorn and watch that unfold.”
What Democrats Could Do Wrong
Joel Montfort, a Dallas-based Democratic activist who has worked on local and national campaigns, says a passive race is a losing one. “[Democrats have] got to take the gloves off and get serious about this stuff, and we have to fight at their level,” said Montfort. “I don't know how far you take that. That's really something each candidate is going to have to sit down and decide what their tolerance for risk is.”
Montfort says Allred took the high road during his last campaign, opting for traditional techniques instead of the boots-on-the-ground campaign that worked for O’Rourke just years before.
“Colin came up short this last cycle,” he said. “He sat on the sidelines, listening to DC consultants and running high-paid TV ads, and I think that cost him some credibility.”
Talarico’s early crowds show promise for a good race, but Montfort says he has to keep it going at the same pace or accept a loss.
“I think he’s going to jump in the race, and I think he's got the momentum behind him,” he said. “That's how you do it. You get some fire in your belly, and you just get people to buy into it, and you start showing up everywhere, and you get big crowds.”
In his time in the state legislature, Talarico has leaned on his Christian faith and work as a teacher to build bipartisan support, and it could be just the persona needed for a Texas Democrat, says the campaign advisor.
“He has just this wholesome, clean appearance and approach and speech,” he said. “It is going to be a stark contrast to what Ken Paxton brings to the table. “They say roughly 11% of Texans are truly independent voters. If they value integrity, they will lean towards him. That may be enough to cross the chasm.”
Unlike Allred, says Montfort, Talarico might have the perfect mix of Southern values that Texas voters respond well to.
“You've got to have a guy who looks like he literally has bootstrapped his way through everything, and has just the right amount of draw, and the right amount of appearance, and the right amount of education, all of it,” he said while speaking about the young Democrat from the Austin area.
Dallas state Sen. Nathan Johnson recently announced he will run to take Paxton's job in 2026. He has taken down a Democrat before, in 2018, and says that a change is "due" in the AG's office. On the day he announced his run, he told the Observer that he believes he will benefit from a surge of Democratic voters hitting the polls out of anger toward the current president.
An Unbeatable Republican Edge
As the election nears, there’s one person who could have more sway over the results than anyone else: President Donald Trump.“How good a night Democrats have in November of '26 is largely going to depend on whether the Trump coalition can be activated in the midterm elections,” said Wilson. “That's what's really worrying Republicans, is that all of these folks who surged to the polls to support Trump, many of whom had not voted in the past or certainly not voted for Republicans in the past, are they going to do that when Donald Trump himself is not on the ballot?”
Trump has yet to endorse Cornyn or Paxton, but he does have a positive relationship with the latter, and the attorney general posted a picture of the two of them on the front page of his campaign website.
Wilson says Republican Congress members are more likely to favor Cornyn’s more amicable nature, putting Trump in a tough spot.
“I think Trump himself is torn here between his instinctive fondness for Ken Paxton and everybody telling him, look, the better chance for Republicans to take this seat and hold this seat is John Cornyn,” he said.
Trump's scandals have done little to prevent him from winning the popular vote, but that is little indication that Paxton will be granted the same immunity in the future, although he has enjoyed it in the past.
“[Donald Trump is] one of a kind. Ken Paxton is not Donald Trump,” said Wilson. “We have seen around the country that when people have tried to emulate Donald Trump as a means of overcoming their own shortcomings as candidates, it often has not turned out well… So it's by no means a guarantee that someone who is not Trump can just trot out a strategy from the Trump playbook and make it work.”
But still, Wilson notes that he was impeached before he was re-elected as the state attorney general, so at this point, it’s anybody’s race.
“We have seen Paxton win a statewide election even after all of these ethical issues came to the fore," he said. "So I don't mean at all to discount Ken Paxton's potential political strengths.”
That's probably wise. Breaking the Republican stronghold on statewide offices is going to take a lot more than a few problematic headlines, enthusiastic rally crowds, or some viral videos. People have talked about the so-called "blue wave" in Texas for years, but until election results prove otherwise, Texas voters are seeing red.
