Ken Paxton trounced incumbent Cornyn. What does that mean for Texas in November?

For the first time in four decades, John Cornyn lost an election. 

The incumbent U.S. senator has represented Texas in Washington since 2002, and forged his political career as the state’s attorney general and on the Texas Supreme Court before that. But in a runoff election against his president-endorsed challenger, Ken Paxton, Cornyn was finally crushed. 

By the time President Donald Trump gave Paxton his backing earlier this month, early voting in the runoff election was already underway. Some felt that Paxton’s victory was already a sure thing. Trump accused Cornyn of being a fairweather fan, his support during Trump’s 2024 presidential bid coming too slow. Paxton, on the other hand, would be “a true MAGA Warrior” for Texas. 

Paxton’s victory on Tuesday was decisive — a 28-point win against a four-term incumbent — and padded the president’s record of unbeaten endorsements across the midterm primaries.

“I think there was momentum for Paxton,” said SMU Associate Professor Ben Voth. “President Trump jumped in, and I do think it helped Paxton. I think it did boost and cause him to win by a larger margin. … It does suggest that in the midterm, the conservative base is not really asleep.” 

With Tuesday’s loss, Cornyn joins a diverse group of felled incumbents. Al Green, a Houston Democrat who has served in the U.S. House of Representatives since 2005, was unseated during the runoff. Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy and Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie have both been ousted after Trump endorsed their primary opponents in response to their criticisms of his agenda. 

Voth believes that voters’ reluctance to re-elect incumbents suggests a desire for a new guard to take over Washington, and that voters on both sides of the aisle may be looking for more extreme voices in that search. Whereas Massie and Cassidy were both targets of Trump’s for their public disagreements with the president, Cornyn is one of the “less offensive offenders” of the Trump loyalty test. Just two weeks ago, he attempted to name a state highway after the president, for example. 

But compared to Paxton, and many of Congress’s loudest mouths, for that matter, Cornyn is a level head. 

“I think Cornyn is seen, especially when compared to Ted Cruz, as the more moderate of the two senators,” Voth said. “There is a perception that … Cruz and Paxton and the other alternatives are conservative Texas. And it looks to me like conservative Texans decided, yeah, we’re going to turn out for a May primary.” 

What this means for Democrats 

Within minutes of Tuesday’s race being called for Paxton, Democrats began their attacks. 

James Talarico, the Democrat running for Senate, tweeted out thanks to Cornyn for his years of service and offered, “To Senator Cornyn’s supporters: you have a place in our campaign.” That campaign has already begun running attack ads on Paxton’s “corrupt” record, posting Paxton’s mugshot from the time he was indicted on three felony counts for investment fraud and launched a campaign tour titled “The People vs. Ken Paxton.” 

“Take this back to January, and Democrats had one hope, and it was that Talarico had to win the Democratic primary, and Ken Paxton had to win the Republican primary. Here we are,” said David de la Fuente, a Dallas Democratic consultant. “It’s Texas, it’s a Republican state for a reason, but everyone’s seeing this $4-a-gallon gas and prices at the grocery store. It’s hard to see how Talarico doesn’t have a chance.”

De la Fuente believes there may be a contingent of independent, “less ideological” voters who have historically voted for Cornyn and could be swayed to Talarico’s side. Voth, on the other hand, argues that even if Talarico doesn’t win over thousands of Republican voters, his “strategic juggernaut” may be to convince moderates that Paxton is so unlikable they ultimately choose not to vote at all. 

Either way, Paxton’s victory is likely to be celebrated by Democrats nationally. 

Talarico has already proven himself to be a formidable fundraiser, something Paxton struggles with. This matchup will inevitably drain funding from races in contentious states like North Carolina, Alaska and Ohio just so Paxton can keep up with Talarico on the airwaves, de la Fuente said. Dumping Cornyn, a decades-long overperformer who offered Republicans multiple elections of security, for Paxton was “quite frankly hubris.” 

The promise of a Texas blue wave may trigger PTSD in those who remember 2018’s matchup between Cruz and Beto O’Rourke, who came just 2.6 points short of being Texas’ first statewide Democrat elected in more than 30 years. Still, de la Fuente is convinced that November’s matchup between Talarico and Paxton is “its own race.” 

“Ted Cruz is the guy you reluctantly invite to your party at the last minute, but Ken Paxton is the guy you would never hire at your company or leave alone with a female family member,” he said. “Paxton is so uniquely unlikable to anyone who’s not a hardcore Republican partisan. … And I think that makes a huge difference.” 

The divorced elephants in the room 

There is one more twist in this tale that Voth believes may become relevant come November. 

Paxton is in the midst of a divorce from his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, who filed for the separation last July, citing adultery on “biblical grounds.” Angela Paxton shared her endorsement in a bevy of races on election day, but remained neutral in the Senate primary. 

On one hand, that may be Angela Paxton attempting to stand on her own as a member of the Texas Republican Party by refusing to wade into her estranged husband’s race. Still, Voth wonders if her “restraint” in the primaries suggests plans for a longer-term attack. 

Moderate Republicans seized on the Paxtons’ divorce during the primaries, and Voth expects it to continue to haunt the senatorial race as it draws questions of morality to the surface. 

“I think the divorce for the Paxtons is a big issue. People can sort of argue about whether personal things should be that prominent, but they are,” Voth said. “She definitely has the power to really make it difficult for Ken Paxton going forward. I do think that’s a big issue that’s going to be at least implied and even directly discussed.”