One of the most intriguing questions to be considered during training camp and into the fall will be: Is Trey Lance the future at QB?
It seems preposterous to consider that Lance could potentially be the starting quarterback in 2025, but with the way the Cowboys have navigated the waters of a Dak Prescott contract extension, it almost feels as if they are daring their franchise QB to test the open free agent market at the end of this season.
If you had asked me the Trey Lance question in February, I would’ve laughed out loud and thought "what a moronic question!" But, with each passing month, it's gone from “no way in hell that’s happening, they will obviously extend Dak” to “why in the hell haven’t they extended Dak yet?!”
And now here we are, heading into training camp in just three short weeks.
The financial parameters for Prescott's next contract are now in place, with Cincinnati's Joe Burrow and Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence each averaging $55 million a year. You might think that is a ridiculous number for Prescott, but Lawrence is 20-30 as a starting quarterback with only a single playoff victory. Prescott, however, has played eight seasons in the NFL and is 73-41 as a starter with two playoff wins.
In the seven seasons in which Prescott played 12 or more games (not counting the five games he started in 2020 before being injured), he has never had a season with a losing record. The price of a starting QB in the NFL is simply sky-high these days. Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers is 30-32 and has never won a playoff game, yet he now makes $52.5 million a year. It's just the way it is.
Like Prescott, neither Lawrence nor Herbert has had postseason success, but they’re younger. Prescott will be 31 years old when the season starts in September. If he and the 'Boys fail to advance to the NFC Championship game this season, could team owner Jerry Jones decide his star player is not worth $55 million or more each year and opt to move on?
At this point, it does feel like that idea is at the very least on the table. Prescott, among QBs with at least 64 starts since 2016, ranks third in wins, behind only Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes and just ahead of Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. That group of five quarterbacks presents an intriguing “one of those things is not like the others” exercise, because the four not named Dak all have at least one Super Bowl ring.
Dak Prescott's contract situation is unique, and frankly, he's in his own universe when it comes to QB contracts.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) June 17, 2024
Prescott has all the leverage to ask for at least $60M per year — or Dallas risks losing him for nothing a year from now.
Trevor Lawrence couldn't say that to… pic.twitter.com/u4xsDFaqad
Winning in the regular season at a high rate should translate into more success in the playoffs, yet the Cowboys are 2–5 in Prescott's postseason career. There have been 37 NFL QBs to win only two playoff games in their career. Prescott, Alex Smith and Billy Kilmer are tied for the worst win percentage among that group, all with records of 2–5. But Kilmer at least got Washington to the Super Bowl with his two wins.
At some point, fair or not, the question must be asked whether Prescott has what it takes to get this version of the Cowboys over the hump. Quarterbacks are judged on postseason success, or the lack thereof, and as good as Prescott has been in the regular season, and despite those playoff losses not falling solely on him, this deep into a QB’s career it’s fair to ask if it’s time to move onto another QB option.
Which brings us back to Trey Lance.
Just like Prescott, Lance is going into the final year of his contract and will make about $8.5 million this season. And he’s very much an unknown variable right now. He played three seasons of college football and has three seasons of NFL experience, albeit in a very limited role. In those combined six seasons since high school (yes, only six), he’s started a total of 21 games and thrown a total of 420 passes.
The San Francisco 49ers once thought so highly of Lance that they moved up in the draft to make sure they could select him with the third overall pick in 2021. To do that, they sent Miami a whopping three first round picks and a third-round pick in exchange for that third overall selection. A massively steep price to pay. Lance went 4-4 in eight starts over two seasons with San Francisco. After seeing success with Brock Purdy in 2022, the 49ers traded Lance to Dallas in August for a fourth-round pick.
Even though the new QB didn’t play a single snap for the Cowboys in 2023, team leadership seems to be enamored with the idea that they have a former third overall pick at QB. But what will Lance's next contract cost? He likely won't be in line for a massive Prescott-style contract unless he somehow ends up playing this season due to a Prescott injury and puts up impressive numbers. So, there’s the idea you could get a young starting quarterback for a bargain price but, again, he has no real experience that could provide confidence in cutting a big check.
This could all prove to be moot. If the Cowboys realize the cost of signing Prescott is what anyone who pays attention to the NFL could easily figure it is and extend him before camp begins, the Trey Lance question will be answered once and for all. But maybe Jones wants to pump up Lance with a prominent role in the preseason in hopes that another team will like what they see and consider trading for him. Or, in the most wild-ass-but-not-surprising-because-they-are-the-Cowboys move, maybe they really do believe that a guy with only eight starts in four seasons in the NFL can be the future? Who knows.
Assuming the Cowboys do what they’ve recently done and find some regular-season success followed by postseason failure, would it better to pay a veteran winning QB his market value or to re-sign an unproven yet highly talented QB half that? That looks like the question the Cowboys are hoping Dak will not force them to answer.
Regardless of how it plays out, we’ll be keeping an eye on Trey Lance in camp and in the preseason. He has a lot to prove, and the longer Dak Prescott doesn’t have a contract extension signed, the more intriguing the Trey Lance question will become.
